The government looks likely to accept the recommendations of the Low Pay Commission with a boost to the National Living Wage rate.

In summary:

• National Living Wage will rise to two-thirds of average earnings.
• Chancellor commits to Low Pay Commission recommendations, with latest forecasts showing a pay boost next year worth over £1,000 for 2 million low-paid workers.
• Successive rises mean a full-time worker on the National Living Wage will be over £9,000 better off than they would have been in 2010.

A formal announcement will be made November 2023, presumably as part of the Autumn Statement.

Based on the Low Pay Commission’s latest forecasts, this would see the National Living Wage increase to over £11 an hour from April 2024.   

People currently aged 23 and over are eligible for the National Living Wage, with over 2 million workers on low pay set to benefit from the increase. The announcement, after successive rises since its introduction in July 2015, means a full-time worker on the National Living Wage will be over £9,000 better off than they would have been in 2010.  

Each year, the independent Low Pay Commission produces recommendations to the Government on National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage rates. This year it is due to make recommendations for the rates that will take effect from April 2024, based on their remit which sets a target for the National Living Wage to reach two-thirds of median earnings by 2024 for workers aged 21 and over, taking economic conditions into account.